NFL Moneyline Betting — When to Back the Outright Winner
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Three seasons ago, I watched a mate agonise over a spread bet for twenty minutes — checking power ratings, injury reports, historical ATS records — only to get beaten by a meaningless late-game field goal. His team won the match by four points, but the spread was -6.5 and his bet was dead. He turned to me and said, “Why didn’t I just back them to win?” Good question.
The moneyline is the oldest, simplest, and most intuitive bet in all of sports wagering: pick the winner. No point margins, no handicaps, no complicated maths. Your team wins by one point or thirty and the result is the same — you cash. NFL football accounts for roughly 34% of all sports betting handle in the US, and the moneyline is where many bettors start before branching into spreads and totals. In the UK, you’ll find this market listed as “match result” or “outright winner” at most bookmakers.
How NFL Moneyline Bets Work
The moneyline assigns odds to each team based on their perceived probability of winning. The favourite gets shorter odds; the underdog gets longer odds. No points are added or subtracted — the only question is which team finishes with more points on the scoreboard.
Here’s an example. The Baltimore Ravens are playing the Cincinnati Bengals. The bookmaker prices the Ravens as favourites at 4/9 (decimal 1.44) and the Bengals as underdogs at 7/4 (decimal 2.75). If you put 20 quid on the Ravens and they win, your return is 28.80 — a profit of 8.80. If you back the Bengals with the same stake and they pull off the upset, your return is 55.00 — a profit of 35.
The disparity in potential profit reflects the disparity in perceived likelihood. The bookmaker believes the Ravens are significantly more likely to win, so you get paid less for being right about them. The Bengals are less likely to win, so the reward is larger. This risk-reward relationship is the entire foundation of the moneyline market.
One thing to note for UK bettors: NFL moneyline bets include overtime. If the game goes to extra time and your team wins in overtime, your bet still pays out. This differs from some other sports where extra-time results are treated separately. At UK bookmakers, the standard NFL match result market includes all regulation and overtime play.
The NFL generates one of the most active moneyline markets in global sports. A single Sunday slate produces more betting volume than entire weeks of baseball or basketball, and the moneyline is where the clearest price signals emerge because it’s the most liquid market.
Backing Favourites vs Hunting Underdogs on the Moneyline
There’s a persistent debate in NFL betting circles: are you better off grinding favourites at short prices or swinging for underdogs at long prices? After nine years of data in my betting log, my answer is frustratingly nuanced: it depends on the price, not the label.
NFL favourites win outright roughly 65-67% of the time across a typical season. That sounds dominant until you look at the prices. A favourite at 2/7 needs to win 77.8% of the time for you to break even at those odds. At 4/9, the breakeven rate is 69.2%. So even though favourites win more often than not, they frequently don’t win often enough to justify the short prices. Blindly backing every favourite on the moneyline has been a losing strategy over the long term.
Underdogs are the mirror image. They lose most of the time, but the prices are generous enough that you don’t need them to win very often. An underdog at 2/1 only needs to win 33.3% of the time to break even. At 3/1, the threshold drops to 25%. The historical underdog win rate in the NFL hovers around 33-35%, which means there’s a persistent thin margin of value in underdog moneylines as a group — though “as a group” is doing a lot of heavy lifting. The value comes from specific underdogs in specific situations, not from backing every dog on the board.
My approach: I use the moneyline primarily when I believe the favourite will win but the spread is uncomfortably large. If a team is -9.5 on the spread but I think they’ll win by 3 to 7 points, the spread bet is dead but the moneyline still cashes. I’m paying a premium (shorter odds than the spread) for the certainty that I only need them to win, not win by a specific margin. On the underdog side, I look for teams getting 5 or more points on the spread whose moneyline price implies they have less than a 30% chance of winning — games where I think the true probability is closer to 35-38%.
Moneyline or Spread? Choosing the Right Market
This is the question I get asked more than any other, and the answer comes down to your conviction level and the specific numbers on offer.
Choose the moneyline when you believe a team wins but the victory margin is uncertain. Games between evenly matched teams — where the spread is 1 to 3 points — are prime moneyline territory because the spread offers minimal value (you’re essentially paying vig on a coin flip with a small handicap) while the moneyline gives you a cleaner bet on the outcome you actually expect. The “NFL’s integrity of the game” that the league so fiercely protects, as their Management Council has emphasised, depends on competitive balance — and in a balanced league, close games are the norm, not the exception.
Choose the spread when you believe a team wins and you’re confident in the margin. If you think the Ravens beat the Bengals by at least 7 points and the spread is -5.5, the spread bet pays better than the moneyline because you’re taking on additional risk (the margin requirement) in exchange for better odds. The spread also makes more sense when the moneyline price is extremely short — 1/4 or below — because the potential profit on a moneyline favourite at those prices is barely worth the risk.
There’s also a middle-ground approach I use regularly: combining a moneyline bet with a spread bet on the same game. I’ll put two thirds of my planned stake on the moneyline and one third on the spread. If the team wins by a large margin, both bets cash and the spread portion adds extra profit. If they win by a small margin, the moneyline covers while the spread loses, and I still finish in the green overall. It’s a form of hedging within a single game, and it’s particularly useful when I’m confident about the winner but less sure about the margin.
Simplicity Has Its Own Edge
The moneyline doesn’t require you to predict margins, calculate key numbers, or worry about backdoor covers. It asks one question — who wins? — and pays you accordingly. In a sport where single plays routinely decide games and the difference between a 3-point win and a 10-point win can come down to a single turnover in the final minutes, there’s genuine strategic value in choosing the market that only cares about the result. Don’t overcomplicate what doesn’t need complicating.
Does a moneyline bet include overtime by default at UK bookmakers?
Yes. At UKGC-licensed bookmakers, the standard NFL match result (moneyline) market includes overtime. If your team wins in overtime, your bet pays out. There is no separate ‘regular time only’ market for the NFL at most UK operators, unlike in some European football betting markets.
Is moneyline betting better for NFL favourites or underdogs?
Neither universally. Favourites win more often but are frequently overpriced at short odds, while underdogs offer higher payouts but lose the majority of the time. The value depends on whether the price accurately reflects the true win probability. Underdogs in the +150 to +200 range (around 5/2 to 2/1 fractional) have historically offered a thin edge as a group, but individual analysis always beats blanket strategies.
Created by the ”bet nfl Games” editorial team.
